Dear Readers,
With the arrival of spring, the oil markets are anything but thawing. Inventory builds, demand jitters, and unsteady global supply management have all collided this April to stir the pot. As always, we’re bringing you the facts—with just the right amount of fun. Let’s dig into the latest from the world of fuel, from tank tops to tanker ships.
Crude Oil Market Overview
Crude oil inventories have been quietly stacking up over the last few weeks, climbing more than 9 million barrels since mid-March to reach 442.9 million barrels by April 11. Despite this build, stocks remain 4–6% below the five-year average, reflecting long-term tightness even as short-term surpluses emerge.
Refinery utilization stayed firm between 86–87%, with inputs averaging just under 15.7 million bpd, signaling a smooth post-turnaround ramp-up. Meanwhile, imports stayed soft—averaging just above 6 million bpd, down 5–11% year over year, giving domestic producers more space to fill the gap.
Gasoline demand didn’t help matters: it was down 3.4% YoY, contributing to falling inventories. Jet fuel was the star of the show, with 9.1% YoY growth, while distillates held steady with a 7.1% bump over last year—pointing to consistent industrial and freight activity.
Globally, the situation has turned bearish. The IEA slashed its 2025 demand growth forecast to just 730,000 bpd, the weakest in five years. And while OPEC+ tried to hold back production, non-OPEC growth from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana has flooded the market. The result? An oversupply trend that’s building steam.
Bunker Fuel Insights
In the world of marine fuels, steady demand for very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) is keeping refiners on alert, even as global shipping activity slows. Volumes are tapering slightly at major bunkering hubs, and while there’s no panic, the mood is cautious.
Regulatory pressure from the IMO 2025 emissions rules continues to drive blending innovation. LNG bunkering and biofuel experimentation are on the rise, though scale remains a hurdle. Prices have remained mostly flat, but with the broader crude market oversupplied, expect pricing flexibility to hang around.
For shipowners, compliance is now baked into fuel strategy—and refiners are shifting accordingly. That’s keeping the VLSFO space competitive, but also keeping the floor under what could otherwise be a sliding market.
Fuel Oil Sector Highlights
Fuel oil markets are moving with quiet intensity this month. U.S. distillate inventories fell to 11% below the five-year average, despite production increasing to 4.7 million bpd by mid-April. It’s a sign that diesel demand—particularly from freight and construction—is doing the heavy lifting.
Meanwhile, gasoline is backpedaling. Inventories are falling, but not from demand—it’s soft, down over 3% YoY. Instead, less aggressive refining and inventory trimming appear to be behind the drawdowns.
On the global side, slurry oil—often a footnote—is making headlines again. With a market forecast to hit $5.23 billion by 2032, it’s being revalued for its role in industrial burners and marine fuel blending. It’s another sign that every drop counts in the modern fuel mix.
THE CRUDE SIDE: U.S. AND GLOBAL DYNAMICS
U.S. oil production is holding steady with projected growth of 600,000 bpd in 2025. It’s not breakneck speed, but it’s more than enough to keep the country on pace as a top exporter, particularly as domestic demand softens.
Globally, OPEC+ is trying to plug the leaks—figuratively and literally. They’ve committed to more output cuts, but internal compliance issues (we see you, Kazakhstan) and surging non-OPEC production are dulling the impact.
The international chessboard continues to shift. Europe is turning to U.S. light sweet crude in bigger volumes, replacing sanctioned Russian supply. And in the long game, the Gulf nations are doubling down on long-term supply contracts with the East to lock in stability. Flexibility is now the most valuable crude currency.
INTERESTING FACTS: FAMOUS OIL BLUNDERS & FUMBLES
- The Exxon Valdez (1989): One of the worst oil spills in U.S. history—11 million gallons in Alaska’s pristine Prince William Sound.
- BP’s Deepwater Horizon (2010): A blowout that changed offshore drilling forever—spilling 134 million gallons into the Gulf.
- The Texaco Lake Peigneur Disaster (1980): A drilling miscalculation turned a salt mine into a whirlpool.
- Shell’s Brent Spar (1995): The plan to sink an oil platform was scrapped after global backlash.
- Pemex Ixtoc I (1979): Mexico’s major offshore well blowout—second only to Deepwater Horizon.
- The Amoco Cadiz (1978): A navigational error off France spilled 69 million gallons.
- The Castillo de Bellver (1983): A tanker fire off South Africa spilled 79 million gallons—still uncontained.
- Chevron’s Ecuador Saga: Ongoing lawsuits stem from decades of contamination in the Amazon.
- Piper Alpha (1988): A North Sea platform explosion that reshaped offshore safety rules.
- The Missing Millions: In 2014, Nigeria couldn’t account for $20 billion in oil revenues. Still a mystery.
SUGGESTED READING
“TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT: THE COMING SAUDI OIL SHOCK AND THE WORLD ECONOMY” BY MATTHEW SIMMONS
Is Saudi Arabia’s oil supply as limitless as the world assumes? Twilight in the Desert by Matthew R. Simmons dives deep into the geology, production data, and secrecy behind Saudi oil fields. With a pro-industry lens, Simmons argues for increased investment in new technologies and domestic production—raising vital questions about the future of global oil security. A must-read for anyone interested in energy strategy and sustainability.
FINAL THOUGHTS
April’s message is loud and clear: we’re sitting in a supply-heavy world with cooling demand and cautious optimism. U.S. fundamentals remain strong, but the global scene feels stretched. Flexibility, strategy, and efficiency will define success in this environment.
The Signal Fluid Solutions team would like to take this time to thank you for your business and thank you for allowing us to be an important part of you supply team.
Tyler Jordan – Oil Trading Manager – 909-203-0237
